Philippine, Saudi, and Turkish pivots signalling the end of the American century

Of the many themes that will go down in history for the year 2016, perhaps one of the most significant will be the pivot of nations away from the U.S. sphere of influence, and their move over to America’s perceived adversaries.  Yet even this is just a microcosm of the great frequency change taking place that seems to even go beyond the ‘Shmitah’ phenomenon, and is similar in scope to changes incurred globally during the second decade of century’s 100, 200, and even 1600 years before.

The second decade of a given century has experienced some of the most significant paradigm shifts for all of mankind.  For instance, the sacking of Rome by the Goths took place in 410 AD, the initial crossing of Moors into Europe occurred in 711 AD, Martin Luther nailed his 95 theses that began the Reformation in 1517, The House of Romanov seized power and began a 300 year rule in 1613, the War of Spanish Succession began in 1712, the Napoleonic era and the re-drawing of the European map took place in the second decade of the 19th century, and of course World War I and the eventual fall of three empires came out of that same second decade in the 20th.

Yet what also came out of the fall of the Austro-Hungarian, Hapsburg, and Ottoman Empires was the rise of the United States as a world power, and our eventual evolution into the greatest nation the world had ever seen.

Unfortunately for the American people, when the final real struggle of the Cold War ended there were as Caesar said, ‘no more worlds to conquer’.  And very soon arrogance replaced humanitarianism within the halls of power in Washington, and a doctrine of dominion replaced that of even Woodrow Wilson’s dream of self-rule and self-governance for all peoples and nations.

But as history has shown time and time again, no empire is ever too large or powerful that it could not be brought down by something as great as an opposing military force, as ignored as a populace uprising, or even as invisible as a natural disaster (plague).  And here in the second decade of the 21st century, the 100 year rise and fall of the American empire may be signalling its twilight through three innocuous events that have taken place so far in 2016.

Turkish pivot to Russia

Even more important than Britain or Germany is to NATO and U.S. global hegemony, Turkey may be the most significant country since it provides the key staging ground for Washington to venture into Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East.  And after the U.S. failed to support the Turkish government when it aggressively took down a Russian aircraft in support of the same terrorist groups created by Washington to try to bring down the Assad government, Turkish leader Erdogan used a failed coup in July to sever their 50 year support of the United States, and pivot over to Russia where it appears that this sea change will end up being permanent versus simply a petulant reaction for not getting the full support they expected from an ally.

Ankara’s relations with Moscow were improving even before the botched coup, but the failed putsch appears to have accelerated rapprochement culminating in Russian President Vladimir Putin holding talks with his Turkish counterpart in Saint Petersburg on August 9.

”Erdogan’s visit came at a time when both Turkey and Russia are going through a rough patch in their relations with the West,” the analyst observed. Erdogan “opted for a pivot to Russia when he did not receive the backing from the West he was hoping for following the coup attempt.”

Putin and Erdogan announced that both countries were ready to restore relations, but Ankara wants to speed up this process, Öztürk Yılmaz, deputy chairman of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), told Sputnik.

”The Turkish president wants to improve relations with Russia in all key spheres as soon as possible to put an end to Turkey’s isolation in the international arena,” the former Turkish diplomat said. “For his part, Putin has been more reserved.”

— Sputnik News

Saudi Arabia pivots to Russia and China

Besides the beginning of Turkey’s pivot away from Washington back in July, another long-standing ally showed its disdain of the U.S. and of President Barack Obama during that same month when it broached Russia with an invitation to visit the Saudi Kingdom, as well as agree to attend an economic conference being held in St. Petersburg.  And this of course was not the first intentional slight of the U.S. since back in January the new Saudi monarch left the American President waiting during his visit to attend the funeral of former King Abdullah.

Even before the United States and Iran reached a landmark deal this week to rein in Iran’s nuclear program, the past 20 months of negotiations have seen one of the United States’ strongest allies in the Middle East retreat in skepticism — and straight into the embrace of an international adversary. But then is Saudi Arabia really our friend anymore?

The latest troubling evidence: A high-level delegation from Saudi Arabia attended a Russian-sponsored economic conference in a country targeted by punishing U.S. economic sanctions for its actions involving Ukraine. The real buzz, however, is that the visit of the Saudi crown prince was to deliver an invitation from King Salman for Russian President Vladimir Putin to visit the desert kingdom.

Mr. Putin didn’t waste time accepting the invitation.

Is King Salman ditching the United States for Russia? Is a partnership between Russia and the kingdom in the making? Is Saudi Arabia’s rapprochement with Russia payback for U.S. negotiations with fierce Muslim rival Iran over the latter’s nuclear program? Answers to these questions aren’t as simple as one might think.
Shockingly, when President Obama visited the kingdom in January of this year to attend the funeral of the late King Abdullah, King Salman in a clear diplomatic slight left our president, his wife and a staffer waiting alone in the palace till King Salman finished his mid-day prayer. The U.S. news media didn’t report this incident. It was Al-Jazeera in Doha, Qatar, that reported the kingdom’s insult.

I strongly believe that, in making Obama wait alone, King Salman sought to send a message that there’s a new ruler in charge in the kingdom; that things will change drastically; and that Saudi Arabia will resolutely pursue its own interests, regardless of what the United States thinks and wants. In a further show of noncooperation, King Salman snubbed Obama several months later by not attending an international security summit at Camp David.

— Huffington Post

So by the end of July, two key nations which were the backbones of the petro-dollar and NATO agreements were now on their way towards America’s greatest adversary and there was little Washington could do to stop it.  And unfortunately for the U.S., once a shark sniffs blood in the water then it usually doesn’t take too long before schools of them begin to circle to feast on the wounded carcass.

And the next shark that entered the game was the Philippines.

EVEN in a year of extraordinary reversals, few would have expected it. In July China reacted with fury when an international tribunal upheld a complaint from the Philippines and rubbished China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. This week it is rolling out the red carpet for the mercurial Philippine president, Rodrigo Duterte. He is being feted in a four-day state visit, with 400-odd businessmen in tow. Rub your eyes: America’s strongest ally in South-East Asia appears to be plopping like a ripe mango into China’s hands.

Consider what Mr Duterte, in power since June, has said in recent weeks. He has branded Barack Obama a “son of a whore” for criticising his “kill them all” war on drug dealers and addicts, which has claimed thousands of lives, many of them innocent. He has demanded an end to joint naval patrols and to America’s assistance in the southern jungles of Mindanao, where American special forces advise Filipino troops fighting against Abu Sayyaf, a violent group linked to al-Qaeda. And he has questioned whether America would honour its treaty obligation to come to the Philippines’ aid if the archipelago were attacked.

Mr Duterte talks of China like a moonstruck lover. On the eve of his visit he told Xinhua, the Chinese news agency, that China’s generosity to poor countries was without reproach. China “deserves the kind of respect that [it] now enjoys…It’s only China that can help us.” He has been at pains to point out that one of his own grandfathers was Chinese. Thrilled, the Chinese ambassador in Manila talks of “clouds fading away” and the sun rising to “shine beautifully on the new chapter of bilateral relations”.

— The Economist

A Filipino pivot would have devastating effects for ongoing U.S. policies that include China’s seizing of ‘disputed islands’, as well as Washington’s goal of creating a Pacific Rim trade pact through the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).  And perhaps even more it could send shockwaves to the rest of Southeast Asia which would rightly fear being isolated and choose to join the rush to the door to get a good deal out of China before it is too late.

Europe is already beginning to crack on unanimity with U.S. sanctions against Russia, and German businesses are even pushing Chancellor Angela Merkel to create her own pivot towards Putin.  And following the UK Brexit vote last June, even the most powerful U.S. ally is suddenly looking to their own economic needs and are moving ever so slowly towards China’s camp.

As the world continues into the second half of the second decade of the 21st century, history is once again rhyming in full measure.  And just as no one foresaw the innocuous events that led to the sudden and horrific world war that would shape the globe for the entire 20th century, and see the end of three long-standing empires, very few are giving any real credence to what is happening to the U.S. in global relations that could very soon see Washington isolated completely, and no longer able to function in a world they no longer recognize, or control.

12 comments

  1. You are right Kenn, people are starting to see USA in a position of weakness. But the mainstream media keep telling us, all is right and recovering.

  2. don’t understand why Erdogan is pushing in such a way in Syria that Russia issued their latest warning..
    I was ‘thinking..lol to self’ that relations between the two were to get along with each other..seems
    like Turkey has a split personality and depending on the day for which way it goes..
    where is Israel in all this?..very, very little talk about that country..yet just because it’s being very quiet doesn’t mean it isn’t part of what’s going on

  3. The early 1970’s was a significant period when the United States really went into the deep end in geopolitics.

    It was the end of the Apollo Moon program, which had been a successful distraction from the rising anger against its involvement in the Vietnam War and the end to an acceleration of technology and the beginning of the end of ‘made in America’ products. Wernher Von Braun may have provided the brains (the Saturn V followed the same color scheme as the V2) but the rockets and engines were entirely made in the United State by American engineers, most who have now passed on. That would change as industries slowly and gradually started moving their production overseas in the 1980s, picking up the pace once they swallowed the propaganda of ‘globalisation’ and ‘outsourcing’.
    Had the Apollo program expanded to Moon colonization and reaching Mars (by 1986 according to LaRouche had they stuck with the plan) the space program would have formed the core of the US economy in the waning years of the 20th century as it involved components manufactured by the Military Industrial Complex, which would have been more resistant to outsourcing to potential adversaries. It would have given the MIC something else to do other than creating weapons to fuel Anglo-American gunboat diplomacy that has left parts of the world in ruin.

    The other factor was Nixon’s disconnection of the US dollar and the rest of the world’s fiat currencies from the gold standard and the beginning of global economic inflation and unsound monetary policies (See Mike Maloney’s Hidden Secrets of Money). That mess is with us today and we are reaping what Nixon sowed with creeping inflation and poorer quality goods and services for those trying to keep prices the same and an entire generation not having experienced sound money regulated by the limited and not-easy-to-mine supply of gold. Repelling of Glass-Steagall merely greased the skids to a faster elevator ride to Hell.

    Other damage done by the has-been Western establishment is the suppression of cancer cures by Big Pharma in favor of the $300,000/year/cancer-patient earnings and suppression of better alternatives to the internal combustion engine and fossil fuels.

  4. 1) Turkey did not shoot down the Su24… the cia did has reported on this site!
    2) The major reason Ergogan is pivoting to Russia is… the US tried to KILL him and almost succeeded if it had not been for Russia saving him! Ergogan is not about to forget this attempt on his life!

  5. The hacker known as ‘The Jester’ defaced the Russian Foreign Ministry page this weekend. Impressive, at least for headlines, but ultimately script kiddie warfare not really above Anons in their mother’s basement level stuff. If The Jester had help from the NSA, I think they could do better. I hope The Jester’s ready for his personal page to be defaced in retaliation with images of Ukrainian Azov Battalion SS flag waving Nazis and Al Nusra jihadists with the message, "Knock it off America".

  6. Ken,

    This is the latest article from Jim Willie:

    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1477425600.php

    ‘The Jackass concludes the USD rejection could be lifting its head within a gathering storm, without clear identification. It is indeed difficult to identify all the elements when hidden deals at the highest level are underway, and friction is omnipresent. The Bobcat Corp rejection of USTBills at Pacific ports is a clear story.’

    The Taiwanese program presenter (at 8.32 min) have noted that Dr Copper and Oil no longer have a inverse relationship to USD; instead their prices are inversely related to Chinese RMB. USD seems to have lost the relationship to these 2 key commodities. Have you notice this?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJzp_AcukRM

  7. Ken,

    Just a follow-up on my previous post – the Taiwanese presenter is noticing that the devalued RMB is replacing the USD as the preferred international currency for trading and the PetroYuan is in the process of replacing the PetroDollar.

    This strategy by China is quite different from what Jim Willie talked about (Dollar rejection). However, Jim Willie seems to be right about the USD rising and rising and finally goes poof from international trade.

  8. Since becoming part of the SDR, the Chinese strategy to replace the USD in international trade seems to be:

    1. Throw out the excess USD within the coffers of PBOC
    2. Devalue the RMB and make use of the fact that China is the largest consumer of raw commodities. This will replace the USD as all payments will be in RMB. Hence the inverse relationship of Copper and Oil prices to RMB.
    3. Stock up on gold as gold is the ultimate USD killer. (this is the part I still not sure what is the next step)
    4. To replace the petrodollar by ‘working’ on OPEC (Russian oil is already paid in RMB).

    This few steps will force the USD to rise and rise again (or come flooding home for lack of use in international trade). USD will be following the footstep of Japanese Yen. Many decades of depression and ZIRP forever.

    My guess is that any country that pegged its currency to USD will end up with the same fate – their goods and services will be too expansive and their economy will die slowly. Good example could be Hong Kong?

  9. From Jim Willie:

    ‘A month ago was observed a massive $343 billion in USTreasury sales by foreign central banks in the period July 1st 2015 to July 1st 2016, something truly unprecedented in size. Fast forward to the latest monthly update, which was posted as July data. All have gone worse. The running latest 12 months (LTM) in foreign central bank sales shot up to a new all time high $346.4 billion. Thus over one third of a $trillion in USTreasurys were sold in the past 12 months. Recall that in three months late in 2015, the Chinese sold $250 billion in USTBonds, which forced the IMF inclusion of the RMB into their formal basket of currencies. The dumping has been global, massive, and without precedent. China is the major seller, while the Saudis are the newest sellers. The broken Outhouse of Saud requires the funds to offset the collapse of the Petro-Dollar, and to backstop the country’s soaring budget deficit made worse by the obscene Yemen War.’

    The banksters knew this is coming and are getting rid of the US Treasury bonds as quick as they can. The Chinese will be dictating the prices of all basic commodities. Probably 6 months down the road, most international trade payments will be done in RMB and very little in Yen, Euros or USD. 2017 is going to be a challenging time for all. BTW China is now paying (ranging from 15 – 120%) more for a basket of basic commodities (food, metals and oil) than US, Europe and Japan. This would drive up prices by next year and lead to shortages in the rest of the world as suppliers will be selling everything to China.

    Duterte is heck of a smart politician as China will buy all the agricultural products from Philippines and Chinese tourism trade is back on. He will get re-elected!

    Tell V congrats on his forecast in the RM Team Report for 2017.

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