Turkey’s shoot down of Russian aircraft tied to one of three scenarios

Up until now the public has had little more than speculation as to why Turkey chose to endanger their country by blatantly shooting down a Russian fighter jet that at most, had crossed into Turkish airspace for less than 17 seconds.  Of course, members of Rogue Money have considered quite a few reasons why this act was done, especially after Turkey had signed onto a de-confrontation agreement to pursue solutions for incidental contacts like this one, that may have included the accidential flying over sovereign airspace.
But over the weekend Dr. Paul Craig Roberts provided a little more insight into the psychopathy of Erdogan in an interview with King World News, and outlined three probable scenarios as to why Turkey would challenge Russia in the escalating war against ISIS.

Erdogan’s family involved in purchasing oil sold on the black market by ISIS

Turkey has a long history of playing the middleman to both sovereign and rogue agencies, and profiting on the racketeering that comes from the buying and selling of illegal items.  We know that Turkey played a key role in the Iranian oil for gold program that went on for years under the auspices of U.S. imposed sanctions, and Turkey played both sides of the fence by jawboning their support for NATO policies while at the same time making agreements with Russia and Iran for energy and profit.

However, when it comes to ISIS Turkey went way beyond simply buying oil from them on the cheap, and instead played a role as a wholesaler who sold that oil back into the market for great profits.  And the individual at the center of this oil trade was President Erdogan’s own son, Bilal.

Turkey’s role in facilitating the sale of Islamic State oil has been the subject of some debate for quite a while. From “NATO is harbouring the Islamic State: Why France’s brave new war on ISIS is a sick joke, and an insult to the victims of the Paris attacks”, by Nafeez Ahmed:

“Turkey has played a key role in facilitating the life-blood of ISIS’ expansion: black market oil sales. Senior political and intelligence sources in Turkey and Iraq confirm that Turkish authorities have actively facilitated ISIS oil sales through the country. Last summer, Mehmet Ali Ediboglu, an MP from the main opposition, the Republican People’s Party, estimated the quantity of ISIS oil sales in Turkey at about $800 million—that was over a year ago. By now, this implies that Turkey has facilitated over $1 billion worth of black market ISIS oil sales to date” – Medium

And of an interesting side note, before Turkey shot down Russia’s aircraft last week, Putin blew up a convoy of oil tankers that were on their way to Turkey.


Neocon’s behind the attack on the Russian plane: Victoria Nuland in Turkey one month before the attack

As we know from the Maidan coup that took place in Kiev a few years back, wherever U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland goes, death and U.S. foreign policy follows.  And with Secretary Nuland visiting Ankara in late October, chances are highly possible that Erdogan was given instructions on harassing Russia along its border with Syria, and creating an event where NATO would have to declare war against Putin under Article 5 of their defense agreement.

To add some credence to this theory, all one needs to do is look at the headlines on the Wall Street Journal which called President Putin a ‘Paper Tiger’, and tried to provoke him into attack Turkey so that NATO would have justification to save them as a NATO member.

U.S. wants to provoke Russia into using their C3 electronic jamming technology so that the Pentagon can attempt to find a way to counter it

One of the more interesting theories on why Turkey shot down a Russian aircraft came to Dr. Roberts from a former Air Force confidante who suggested that after Russia electronically shut down the U.S.S. Donald Cook last year in the Black Sea, that the Pentagon is desperate to find a way to counteract this technology and believes that if Russia is forced to expand the war beyond ISIS, then they will need to utilize their jamming capabilities and open themselves up to potential ‘intercept’.


Either way, the blowback from Turkey’s actions have had a chilling effect on both Europe, and Ankara as Putin has chosen the path of economic sanctions and legal expansion of military might along the Turkish border with Syria.  And with NATO already proclaiming that Turkey’s attack negates the use of Article 5 since they were the aggressors against Russia and not the opposite, the end result no matter which theory(s) are proven correct is that this sacrificing of a pawn has now allowed Russia to move without a single word from Europe or the United States onto much greater areas of the chessboard, and with much more firepower than they intended previously.


  1. Implying that Putin called Obama a strutting pigeon would be funny in cartoon format. Using a photo of Putin put a shadow of bs into your speculation of this geo-political situation. Make no mistake I’m a fan of yours and the entire RM crew. What are your thoughts about Turkey shutting down southbound shipping through the straits from the Black Sea for a day? Could Turkey stop Russian war ships for an extended time?

  2. I like that scenario about trying to goad Russia into showing off their new electronic warfare toys. Shrewd of Putin not to fall for it. The man has admirable self control.

  3. Thinking about bringing Turkey into EU again would certainly not stem the tide of refugees or terrorists into Europe. These people have to be out of their minds:

    Visa free travel into Turkey has been a huge problem. Visa free travel to Europe makes no sense unless more chaos is being planned.

    Last time around Sarkozy and a couple of other countries refused Turkey’s membership. Trusting Erdogan to control immigration is just laughable.

  4. A little off topic here, but Ken, any thoughts on the synchronicity of the ending of too big too fail support with the Yuan coming into it’s own with he SDR? This is supposedly due to Dodd-Frank and planned a while back, but you wonder when such big events happen on the same day..

    Seems like this should be a big deal with big consequences. I’m under the impression that most of the big banks are insolvent…if this is true, December could be wild.

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