Rumors of War with Russia, Part 8: Ukraine’s ‘Operation Citadel’

Reliable Novorossiya sources indicate this morning that Kiev is massing up to 90,000 troops, hundreds of self-propelled guns, tanks and armored infantry fighting vehicles for an offensive against the pro-Russian Donbass forces. Donetsk has been under heavy bombardment, with hundreds of artillery or mortar shells fired overnight into Sunday. Donetsk People’s Republic Prime Minister Alexander Zakharchenko has declared that a large-scale Ukrainian assault is imminent and cancelled all leave while ordering the DNR [Доне́цкая Наро́дная Респу́блика – JWS]/DPR’s tanks and guns to front line positions. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=551tRQPmsVo

The Gathering Storm Clouds and Artillery Thunder Over Donbass On the Kiev side, former interim President Oleksandr Turchynov aka ‘the blood Baptist’ has visited the front lines and reviewed Ukrainian troops wearing full fatigues and 21st century Israeli assault rifle regalia. Turchinov recently threatened to institute martial law (one of the things Ukrainian officials threaten to do about every week it seems, since the war started) if Russian regular troops come into Donbass to repulse Kiev’s planned assault. Kiev’s propaganda machine is gloating about inflicting heavy casualties on Novorossiya Armed Forces (NAF) positions and ammo dumps, and the Ukrainian armed forces (UAF) claims of wiping out phantom NAF attacks and killing hundreds of Russian attackers that cannot be substantiated. These are all indicators, together with the timing of a propaganda blitz by Western media outlets in support of the Nazi SS flag waving Azov battalion occupying Mariupol, that a heavyweight slug fest is imminent in the Donbass.

From Russia, there are threats that Kiev and Langley spooks can both read in pro-Russian media that the ‘vacationers’ of last July and August will return to smash the overconfident Ukrainians:

Regarding “military trade” – here I can reassure (hopefully not in vain). Quite a large group has come, exceeding even that that participated in and covered the Armed Forces of Novorossiya in the winter campaign. Without naming specific figures, I can assume that in the case of large-scale deployments of BD (rus.: боевое дежурство, eng.: combat duty units) on the level of last summer, the number of “vacationers” and vehicles will not be smaller than in august of last year (when the danger of cutting off the people’s republics from the border with Russia was averted and the Ilovaysk cauldron was “brewed.”

 

 

Kiev May be Going ‘All in’ on a Desperate Military Gamble — Leaving Very Little Armor and Artillery in Reserve if it Loses Big

Colonel Cassad aka Boris Rozhin is a pro-NAF but reliable source on the situation in Donbass. The Crimea-based blogger speaks on the phone with people who know members of Zakharchenko’s war cabinet every week. Here’s what Rozhin wrote early Sunday:

Reports from several sources of 90,000 troops on Ukie side.

From latest reports MO [Министерство обороны or translated as Ministry of Defense – JWS] DNR .

APU [armed punishers of Ukraine – JWS] prepared to attack [with] 435 tanks, 132 MLRS and 830 units of artillery and mortars

Command of the armed forces by August 16, concentrated for an attack at the separation line three shock troops. In the “With” the enemy has up to 22 battalions.

In its composition: tanks up to 130 units, armored combat vehicles to 950 units, field artillery guns and mortars to 290 units, MLRS to 35 units.

In sector “B” of the enemy force consists of up to 26 battalions. In its composition: tanks up to 230 units, armored combat vehicles 830 units, field artillery guns and mortars to 360 units, MLRS to 75 units.

In the sector of “M” the enemy has up to 20 battalions. In its composition: tanks up to 75 units, armored combat vehicles 545 units, field artillery guns and mortars up to 180 units, MLRS to 22 units.

PS. Something today, even the comments of officials ooze alarmism. The phrase ‘fire of a new war in Europe’ can still be prevented sounded like a last attempt to appeal to Europe to put pressure on the junta. [German Foreign Minister Frank Walter] Steinmeier also spoke in the spirit that all hangs in the balance and the situation threatens to fall into an escalation scenario.

Center for Syncretic Studies analyst Joaquin Flores based in Belgrade, Serbia says there will be no ‘Minsk3’ talks after Kiev’s next defeat on the Donbass battlefield at the hands of the pro-Russian Novorossiya Armed Forces (NAF) From this major arms build up along the front we can draw at least two conclusions:

The U.S. and Most Likely Poland and Romania Have Been Secretly Providing Kiev with a Massive Amount of Old but Usable Armor and Guns

1) Covert U.S. aid to the Kiev regime over the past several months since the humiliating defeat at Debaltsevo to repair damaged equipment or restore old Soviet armor and cannons from the mothballs must be quite large. Possibly to the point that the much ballyhooed training of Ukrainian soldiers at the Yavoriv complex in Lvov region is a sideshow to the real buildup of a combined armored and artillery ‘fist’ on the model of American/NATO rebuilding of Croatia’s military prior to 1995’s U.S. general directed Operation Storm. The rumors reported by Ft. Russ that Kiev was seeking to acquire Warsaw Pact self-propelled guns and tanks from Polish, Hungarian and Romanian stocks and boneyard-bound Bundeswehr Marder IFVs from Germany were likely true.

There is simply no way that Ukraine’s piss poor annual output of tanks and cannon wagons could adequately provide for this large of a force. Kiev is throwing the kitchen sink in the form of nearly all of its remaining firepower at the Donbass. If Kiev loses several hundred of its guns and tanks this autumn, there won’t be any making good the losses without the Ukrainians directly acquiring (U.S.-taxpayer funded) American armor. There just aren’t enough Warsaw Pact tanks and infantry fighting vehicles left in all of Eastern Europe to rebuild Kiev’s forces if this offensive fails.

After the failure of Hitler’s Operation Citadel, Nazi Germany was left without enough panzers and guns to counter a major Soviet offensive. 72 years later, a decisive defeat this August and September would leave Kiev lacking a sufficient reserve of tanks and cannons to beat back an NAF counteroffensive. Especially if the rumors are true that there will be no Minsk3 ceasefire agreement, and Russia intends to help the NAF cut off Mariupol from Kiev-controlled territory and perhaps  annihilate the city’s Nazi Azov battalion defenders.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22xpNBJCS4U

Washington and Kiev Fear They Are Running Out of Time to Force Russia into Major Overt Intervention in Ukraine or to Maintain the Regime

2) The fact that Kiev has put together a force this large after its most recent conscription campaign barely managed to shanghai er, recruit half of the targeted total of cannon fodder soldiers tells me that the Ukrainian side and their sponsors in Washington badly need some ‘victories’ over the ‘combined Russian-separatist forces’ and they need one soon. The most interesting question for RogueMoney.net readers and the RM brain trust is ‘why now’?

In military terms, what Kiev is doing is not radically different from what Adolf Hitler did in 1943 when he gambled on a major offensive to damage the Soviet Red Army that summer prior to the Americans and British invading Italy and France in the West.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgo3p1IqVy0

Kursk — the largest tank battle of World War II — hastened the collapse of Hitler’s Third Reich by a year or more, by leaving the Nazis with an inadequate number of tanks and cannons to defend the huge Eastern Front. Russian tactics and strategems don’t change, they simply get updated for 21st century warfare. Washington’s ‘combined NATO-Ukrainian forces’ appear to be doomed to repeat Hitler’s mistakes committed against the Soviets 72 years ago, as Russia warns the Americans and Ukrainians through pro-NAF social media that Russian ‘vacationers’ could return to the fight

Unternahmen Zitadel proved to be a microcosm of Hitler’s doomed Barbarossa campaign against the USSR. It ended in a bloody, costly failure in which Hitler’s elite panzer divisions were ground down by heroic Russian resistance, massed firepower, and clever defense in depth tactics. A similar fate awaits any serious Ukrainian assault that isn’t merely an attempt to attrit the NAF but to actually recapture significant territory approaching the Russian border. Kiev is clearly scared that socio-economic forces could become Russia’s equivalent to a WW2 ‘second front’ on top of the primary battlefield in the Donbass.  Something besides the visible problems of morale, corruption and inadequate supplies for the front is rotting the U.S.-backed Kiev regime from within, and belying the cocky pronouncements of its NATO and State Department sponsors.

Could it be that it’s not just the Kiev regime, but its sponsors in Washington who fear that they’ve bitten off more than they can chew? Is Washington spooked that the growing conflict with China over the devaluation of the yuan and so-called ‘pivot to Asia’ could leave American military power overstretched and inadequate if Russia intervenes more forcefully in Ukraine? Or is Kiev’s desperate assault, as we suggested in our previous post referencing Secretary of State John Kerry’s stunning admission about the weakness of the petrodollar, yet another sign that Washington is desperate to use military means to prop up the crumbling dollar-led Western economic order?|

Why Ukraine’s Latest Offensive, Like the Previous Failed Assaults on Donetsk and Lugansk, is Doomed

As we wrote in our previous RM post, the expected axes of attack are predictable and well known to Russian and the republics’ intelligence services. A pincer move to attack Donetsk from the south while hitting Gorlovka hard and trying to drive a wedge between the ‘separatist’ capitals of Donetsk and Lugansk seems to be the ambitious objective of this offensive. DNR sources report that over 160 residents have been killed by Ukrainian shelling of Gorlovka since the start of the year.

Any actions in the north along the Lugansk front are likely to be of a diversionary nature. Exactly what Kiev can realistically hope to achieve with these assaults is an interesting question, though its troops could make some tactical gains in the area of the Donetsk airport in the south on the outskirts of Mariupol at Telmanovo, where Russian reporters indicate Ukrainian reconnaissance by fire has been underway for days. A symbolic ‘victory’ of putting the Ukrainian flag atop one of the few standing and undamaged buildings in Telmanovo or near the ruined Donetsk airport may be possible for Kiev’s troops, although UAF losses will be high. The rest of the battlefield is either too exposed to artillery and GRAD fire across the steppes or too urbanized for rapid advancement, particularly when Kiev itself claims to have fewer tanks and APCs than the ‘separatists’ — a lie, but a convincing one perhaps, along with the claim that Russia is providing the NAF with bazillions of tanks and drivers for them from Buryatia in Siberia.

As one NAF fighter, a convicted Communist who was actually anti-Putin before joining the Novorossiya forces put it, All things considered, we had the same [logistical, supply and command] problems and mess as they [the Ukrainians] did, and we won due to the fact that we [the NAF] had more people who gave a sh*t.” He also stated for the record, regarding the number of regular Russian army soldiers ‘vacationing’ with the NAF, as an excuse for Ukrainian defeats– it was negligable, possibly with the artillery in the rear and a few tankers, but not much more than that:

I would also like to address the subject of “Buryat battalions”, ” Buryat tankmen ” and the concept of “The Russian troops are the ones fighting, and militia simply creates a smokescreen around them“, in general.

Guys, I would be very glad and happy if Russian army really fought there, and the militia stood aside and applauded. I would be very happy if the Russian army repeated the August “surgical strike” and cut off Debaltsevo salient without our participation. But alas. Alas, alas, alas.

All this was done not by the Russian army, but the militia, buried under a pile of paperwork which allegedly contributed to its transformation into an efficient army. And because of this, everything was accomplished with tremendous losses, which could have been avoided if the NAF army was not reorganized by an obsolete template.

Alas, in all of my time fighting and traveling between combat positions, I did not happen to see regular Russian army in the winter campaign. Some specialists? Yes, volunteers. Individual vehicle crews? Possibly. But tank battalions … Or any battalions fighting as normal army units – that I did not see. Nope.  [It looks like the Ukrainian Chief of Staff Viktor Muzhenko who embarrassed Washington and Kiev propagandists by flat out declaring that there were no Russian units, as opposed to individual Russian citizen volunteers fighting at Debaltsevo, actually told the truth and wasn’t an agent of the accursed Moskals/FSB after all! – JWS]

Maybe, at the end of the operation the command have finally lost faith in their abilities and chose to “call a friend”. I do not know. I would love to see the Russian army in action, but alas, they weren’t there. At least on the LPR side of the front.

If this is the situation of the victorious Novorossiya (DNR/LNR) army that defeated the Ukrainians at Debaltsevo, one shudders to think of how piss poor the leadership and organization of the mainline conscript Ukrainian troops is, as they’re about to be sent into battle once more. No wonder so many refer to mobilization as ‘mogilization’ and new recruits as fresh ‘meat’ for the artillery grinder. It isn’t even clear how long Ukrainian troops could remain in Telmanovo even if they succeed in taking the town due to its proximity to Russia and the possibility of heavy or thermobaric rocket fire from the Russian side of the border — as happened at Saur Mogila in July and August 2014.

Ukrainian forces have maintained only a limited presence in the abandoned, ‘demilitarized’ town of Shyrokino near Mariupol for the same reason, because they don’t want to get caught in an artillery trap and then get quickly cut off from their supply lines. Commanders have learned lessons paid for in their men’s lives that armored ‘breakthroughs’ insufficiently widened run the risk of being pinched off and encircled before destruction, much like the failed attacks to relieve the siege of Donetsk Airport and the destroyed Ukrainian bulge at Debaltsevo.

Kiev’s Lies about Casualties and the Failure of Ukrainian ‘Meatgrinder’ Tactics aka Just ‘Kill [Pro] Russians’

In looking at the map and analyzing the WWI-style Paths of Glory pointlessness of an attack on Telmanovo, the idea of ‘bait’ ing Russia into more overt intervention and direct fire support for the NAF from their side may be the whole point. But even if the Ukrainians succeed in this and get the #RussiaInvadedUkraine Western propaganda presses rolling at full speed, it seems there’s hardly going to be high Ukrainian morale on the front lines after symbolic victories paid for with hundreds or even thousands of lives. Kiev is already struggling to maintain the ridiculous lie that it has lost ‘only’ 2,400 soldiers whose named and photos appear in the English language, regime mouthpiece Kyiv Post newspaper — although the regime recently admitted as many as 8,000 Ukrainian servicemen and police officers have defected to the ‘separatists’ side since the start of the fighting in April 2014.

Further casualties from an offensive that even the Kyiv Post presstitutes can’t hide would only magnify suspicions that the Associated Press, Reuters, BBC, Bloomberg and the rest of the Western media are complicit with the Kiev regime and the Pentagon’s lies about the real Ukraine war body count. The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ)’s bombshell report that over 50,000 people had lost their lives prematurely as a result of the Donbass war as of February 2015 was far closer to the mark, with Ukrainian combatant deaths estimated to account for between 16,000 and 20,000 of that tally. That is several thousand more deaths than what the Soviets suffered through the entire 1980s Afghan War.

On the other side of the lines, the ‘combined Russian-separatist forces’ perhaps suffered between 5 and 7,000 KIA with a few hundred ‘vacationers’ or active duty Russian servicemen. Perhaps 1,500 non-servicemen Russian volunteers and a few individual Serbs and other foreigners are included in the NAF losses sheet. The rest of the dead are civilians, a large percentage of them elderly Donbass residents who could not cope with the destruction of their homes, the economic blockade, and the disruption of medicine deliveries. As humanitarian volunteer Yevdokia “Dunya” Sheremetyeva reports in her “Little Hiroshima” dispatches, many Donbass diabetics, including diabetic children, would die without Russian-donated insulin shots which could be rendered useless by the failure or holdup of a refrigeration truck at a checkpoint. Many elderly and children who were simply killed by incoming artillery and rocket fire, whether out in the open, in their homes, or running to the basement bomb shelters.

A Bankrupt Country’s Offensive Sustained Only by U.S./EU Money Printing via the IMF

Thus we’re left without viable military explanations for Kiev’s conduct, and can only explain this new offensive through politics and economics. Namely, V the Guerrilla Economist’s maxim that desperate people do stupid and desperate things. The more dispatches from RFE/RL we read about how desperate Russia must be to extract itself from the Donbass conflict, the more we understand it’s Kiev that is running out of time and money while exhausting the patience of the Ukrainian ‘home front’.

Today nearly half of all Ukrainian economic activity is estimated to occur ‘off the books’ and hence, removed from the government’s taxation rolls. This is not surprising, since no one could afford to live in Kiev on what the official salaries are for many jobs, ranging from bus drivers to government office clerks. the vast majority of the Ukrainian population which isn’t being paid directly via the IMF issued funds is clearly getting in the ‘game’ of supplementing income through street trading, barter, or bribery, or pooling resources with friends and relatives. There is simply no other way, besides nationalist propaganda blaming Putin for everything, we can explain why the Ukrainian economy hasn’t already completely collapsed due to the cutoff of trade with Russia. There’s no other method by which we can fathom why Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk haven’t been overthrown in a third Maidan. The horrifying figures compiled in this report translated by Ft. Russ, “Ukrainian economy after a year of ‘reforms’ — banana republic without bananas” speak for themselves.

On the other hand, judging by the shiny new luxury automobiles parked outside the various government ministries and fancy restaurants frequented by politicians and foreigners, not everyone in Kiev is tightening their belts. That of course, also creates resentment among the impoverished Ukrainian masses that all the promises about cleaning up corruption after the nasty Yanukovich was done away with have proven to be lies. Kiev’s NATO advertised ‘war on corruption’ has proven to be even less successful than the war against ‘the separatists’ for similar reasons — way too much ‘trading with the enemy’.

NAF commander Igor “Bez” (demon) Bezler speaks about how his men literally bought rocket launchers and weapons from corrupt generals and colonels of the Ukrainian army, and alleges that Poroshenko himself was complicit in the arms trade with the rising rebellion in April 2014

Washington’s Pet Azov Nazis Receive the Full Leni Riefenstahl Treatment from a Heritage Foundation Paid U.S. Vet and the Presstitutes — The Russia Analyst Believes These Guys are Being Nurtured as a Neo-Fascist, 21st Century ‘Gladio’ Group of Operatives Meanwhile, the nationalist battalions aren’t so much interested in dying for Ukraine as taking it over when ‘Porky’ and ‘Yats’ get pushed aside or flee into the arms of their American puppeteers. ‘Simple soldiers’ do not after all run kids summer camps to brainwash children into using weapons to defend the Ukrainian Nazism, nor do they accept invitations to speak at the European Parliament, or run full fledged PR campaigns in western media on their own and hidden sponsors’ behalf. All of these things are what Azov is doing while it carefully avoids any full-on bloody engagement and leads the serious bleeding and dying to the regular Ukrainian Army in Donbass.

These developments suggest Washington sees a role for its neo-Nazi useful idiots in Azov, now that the Right Sector ‘brand’ has been somewhat tarnished by the recent, unfortunate shootout with Ukrainian cops in Mukachevo. Azov appears to be replacing Right Sector as Washington’s nasty ‘stick’ in addition to the bribery ‘carrots’ that ensure its will is somewhat done in Kiev as it is in the Beltway.

21st century fascist hipster chic: Swedish ‘former’ neo-Nazi Mikael Skillt as the SS flag waving Azov battalion’s international spokesman, now a hero to the Heritage Foundation’s Daily Signal correspondent Nolan Petersen and Newsweek too

The Russia Analyst also has a theory we’ve developed on our own about Azov, albeit one influenced by Joaquin Flores’ theories of Washington’s dialectical control over events in Ukraine. We believe that Azov fighters could form the nucleus of a ‘neo-Nazi internationale’ as a kind of ‘white power’ parallel to the CIA’s Arab jihadist foreign legion formed back in the 1980s that eventually became Al-Qaeda. With the end goal of using Azov Nazis returning to their European home countries like Sweden as agent provocateurs for U.S.-planned destabilization operations across Europe, which could include for the first time widespread attacks on mosques and Muslims in order to create sectarian and racial violence. The globalists will lovingly nurture their dialectic of ‘Islamist migrants versus white power warriors’ that only U.S.-puppet ‘centrists’ who will claim to ‘get tough’ on both the Islamists and skinheads can save Europe from.

Think of the dialectic between stone cold, ‘Knights Templar Mason’ and mentally programmed killer Anders Behring Breivik on one side, and socialist Europarties who think mass Mideast and African migration to Europe is ‘diversity’ whose youth wing suffered from his murder spree. BOTH sides were serving the New World Order objective of dissolving borders and/or discrediting opponents of open borders, in their own way. Azov is part of a similar dialectic by the globalists. These ‘ex’ Nazi operatives, particularly if they claim to renounce their former racist ideas like the Swedish sniper Mikael Skillt, could aid in the infiltration of European nationalist movements opposed to NATO and the Washington-controlled EU. Targets for this Cass Sunstein style ‘cognitive infiltration’ operations would include the National Front of France, the Jobbik party of Hungary, and Golden Dawn in Greece. All of whom presently are gaining supporters and share a most distressing, pro-Russian or at least anti-sanctions on Russia position.

Kiev is Attacking on Washington’s Orders Before the Ukrainian Regime — and the Empire — Lose Control Due to the BRICS Dollar Stabbing Dagger

For the U.S.-propped up Poroshenko/’Yats’ regime, the risks that a default on the country’s private debt and its multi-billion loan to Russia pose to the temporary stabilization of the devalued hyrvnia are substantial. The Chicago-born carpetbagger serving as Kiev’s finance minister, Natalie Jaresko, flew to San Francisco last week for negotiations with multi-billion dollar creditor Franklin Templeton group. By all accounts Jaresko has failed to get Franklin Templeton to agree to Ukrainian demands for a 40% write off of Kiev’s debt owed to the international bond fund manager. Nor is there any indication that the two sides are closer to a compromise after days of negotiations, even with the Obama Administration no doubt applying enormous pressure on Templeton’s managers behind the scenes. Yet in an embarrassing development for a ‘superpower’ hegemon, all of Obama’s horses and all of his men apparently can’t make a few billion dollars in Ukrainian debt go away.

In conclusion, we quote fellow Rogue Money ‘brain trust’ er Ken “the Shotgun” Shortgen Jr.’s thoughts this weekend regarding the strategic U.S dilemma — the looming death of King Dollar — lurking behind another battlefield debacle for Kiev:

The problem for the U.S. is that they have already played most of their cards, and are left resorting to military responses in retaliation of economic threats [JWS emphasis added].  The sudden explosion last week of the Chinese port of Tianjin has many speculating that the West had a hand in this horrific event, and may have been in retaliation to China’s devaluation moves earlier in the week.

China has relied upon the American and European consumers for their lifeblood of trade and commerce for many years, but the days of needing to appease this segment of their economy is quickly coming to an end.  Declines in global consumer spending, coupled with the overall deflationary indicators showing we are now in a worldwide recession, has left China with no need to hold a stable relationship with the dollar and with the U.S., especially as the world accelerates its own ‘beggar thy neighbor’ policies to protect their own, and bring about a new cycle of protectionism.

Plans are only as good as the drawing board when the first shots are fired, and then the battlefield becomes a fluid enterprise of adapt and change.

36 comments

  1. I’ve been assuming Jade Helm was ‘partially’ practice for U.S. troop infiltration in the area of Ukraine in a protracted Vietnam style conflict. This seems to be how it’s being seen in the online Sputnik rag as well:
    US Sliding Into Vietnam-Style War in Ukraine – Stephen Cohen

    http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150815/1025793369.html

    We’ll see if these exercises become moot and are terminated if this ‘all in’ Ukrainian move is handily repulsed.

    1. mlytle0 — I added a few details about how it was basically the Novorossiya forces with a little bit of intel help and perhaps a few ‘vacationer’ specialists (including a few spetsnaz) who routed the Ukrainian army at Debaltsevo, although as the individual rages in the interview at a high price in blood for the NAF. What Joaquin Flores emphasized in his interview with Iran’s Press TV and what many people forget is that the NAF are all volunteers. Even the Russin soldiers US MSM alleges were sent there under orders could in theory desert, or flee to the rest of Ukraine and maybe Belarus, or return to Russia as AWOL. Russia is after all a huge country to hide in and there’s plenty of logging or truck driving work in Siberia. It would not be that hard to lay low for a couple of years and then return to one’s home town, as many Ukrainian males of military age are doing by fleeing as illegal migrants into Romania or Poland. Drafting into the army in Russia as in Ukraine is based on the Soviet-legacy propiska system (which some argues criminalizes homelessness), and the worst the authorities can do is hassle your parents if you’re no where to be found at the place where a draft-able male is registered.
      No, unlike the Ukrainian military, the NAF cannot just go find more conscripts to make good their losses. Even though such replacement of ‘irreplaceable losses’ KIA/seriously WIA exists, like the 90,000 Ukrainian soldiers near the front lines number, more on paper than in offensive-capable reality. Probably only 20% of those 90,000 are prepared to attack fortified positions and take casualties without fleeing from the first few burned out tanks and trucks. The same of course, is true for the NAF’s claim to have 60,000 men under arms — probably 10,000 at the most are really capable of attacking well-defended positions like those around Mariupol and dislodging determined defenders. If you’re wondering why the NAF didn’t push on into Mariupol, a city of half a million people on the Sea of Azov, when they had a good chance of getting into the city and killing a lot of Azov Nazis last September, there’s your answer. The NAF don’t have the manpower to attack fortified cities and the Debaltsevo operation clearly pushed them to their limits, thus all the combined arms training you saw videos of in the ‘down time’ this spring. The NAF could of course, kill Mikael Skillt and all his Azov Nazi comrades while causing enormous destruction to the city and suffering for its civilian inhabitants, but it would be a Pyrrhic victory. Far better to let the Kiev regime lose spectacularly on the battlefield and/or cut Azov off from supplies instead of just storming a well-supplied city and ending up like the Russians in 1994 Grozny.

      On the Kiev side, this is why the politicians and think tankers are pushing for the U.S. military to get much more involved in the training and above all, motivating of Kiev’s armed mobs into a functional fighting force capable of more than just suicidal feats of defensive battle at Donetsk Airport. The Pentagon realizes behind all their bullshit the Ukrainian Army is in appalling shape. The ‘cyborgs’ holding out from May 2014 to January 2015 ultimately mattered about as much as the fanatical bushido demonstrated by the Japanese on Guadalcanal or the Germans who fought on while surrounded inside Stalingrad. The casualties on the opposing force increased, but the final outcome was the same. There is propaganda bullshit about ‘invincible cyborgs’ and then there’s the reality of the NAF digging hundreds of previously frozen ‘cyborg’ bodies out of the old terminal rubble with earth movers for the Red Cross when the thaw made them stink in March and even into April.

  2. Exactly what NATO needs, a good war to distract everyone from the fact that the economic policies of the EU, US, IMF ( redundant) are just pitiful. I wonder if they could coordinate that with a bigger war in Syria, which also appears to be heating up day by day and put us all into total confusion. A full-blown war in Syria has the potential to spread over borders to neighboring countries like Lebanon and Israel.
    Maybe if enough there is enough chaos in the various trade routes they could send the price of oil back up?
    Not saying this will happen but it is a thought.

    1. Joyann, mytle0,
      As I wrote in ‘low down dirty psyops’ a couple weeks ago, U.S. Navy veteran Ross Elder’s claim that Jade Helm is about preparing US special forces to infiltrate a Russian occupied Ukraine just doesn’t hold water. We think it’s laughable. The only thing Texas and Ukraine have in common is being mostly flat and Ukraine being about 89% the size of Texas (yes Texas is bigger than Ukraine). If JSOC needed to practice slipping Green Berets behind Russian lines, they could do that at the huge training complex at Yavoriv in far western Ukraine close to the Polish border, with Russian-speaking Ukrainians playing the ‘red team’. They wouldn’t need to practice ‘blending in’ or being low observable in Texas.

      There’s also a lot of training ground space in Poland and the Poles are at least Slavs who can act like Ukrainians or Russians (in particular the Warsaw Pact raised older generation) as needed. It’s not as if there aren’t lots of Ukrainians in Lvov who would view a $5/hour equivalent job in local hyrvnia playing Russian or NAF tankers and soldiers as a great gig. Ultimately the military fights like it trains and trains like it fights. Both sides have been hampered by Soviet legacy bureaucratic practices and bad command in the Ukrainian Civil War, but the Kiev regime has been hurt more because the Donbass locals are at least fighting on their home turf and are capable of cutting through the red tape in a do or die situation.

      As activist Tatiana Montyan complains on the pro-Ukrainian unity side, nobody in Kiev really gives a crap if they win the war so long as they can make lots of money in war profiteering and ‘destroyed’ supplies. If the Kiev army didn’t go on the offensive and thereby invite artillery fire, the commanders particularly the National Guard units would keep running their checkpoints (“blockposts”) shaking down truck drivers and motorists going back and forth across the opposing lines with lucrative business as usual.

      That’s how screwed up this war is, but then again, what did Washington expect? This is Ukraine. There is a reason foreigners more willing to die for their countries like Poles, Lithuanians, Austro-Hungarian Hapsburgs and Russians have tended to rule them or at least during the Soviet era ruled them in nominal terms. Or I should say, to put it in Patton’s terms, those empires that have been better at making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country have tended to exert influence or directly rule over Ukraine by default. The Ukrainian elites have generally been looking for the strong horse or a Tsar since the Cossacks threw off the Tatars and then the Poles over 350 years ago. See the above regarding my thoughts on whether the U.S. can be added to the list. Short answer: nope, not for long.

    1. That particular quote from John R. Schindler, the ex-professor fired by the U.S. Naval War College a year ago, appears to be disinfo. For all we know Schindler could’ve made the quote up from his own imagination.
      As my friend the Saker explains, U.S. options in Ukraine are basically ‘start WW3 with Russia by going all in ourselves’ or ‘accept de facto partition of the country and cut our losses’. There’s supposed to be an enormous gulf between those extremes, but the reality as I’ve explained is that Washington cannot pay for the Ukraine as a new U.S. colony and won’t make the Marshall Plan-level investment it would take to make the Kiev regime successful, even in theory. Every day, week or month that passes without peace but not all out war with Russia is another month of losing for Washington and another month the Kiev Quislings ‘make hay while the sun is shining’ eg line their pockets in anticipation of fleeing to Canada or Europe with their loot.

      If I didn’t believe the dollar was headed for a train wreck obvious to all but the most fanatical, I wouldn’t say that. But I do, thereby it’s Moscow and not Washington that can run out the clock.

        1. TMojo44 — I have seen some folks on the Saker blog pouring cold water on that report, which Zerohedge may have run a bit prematurely. There are to be sure rumors that a referendum on joining the RF is one way out of the current bloody stalemate which is very harmful to civilians on both sides but mainly on the DNR/LNR side (not surprisingly the pro-Novorossiya Col. Cassad says the Mariupol suburb of Sartana was shelled by Kiev’s troops as a provocation, but the Ukrainian side always says the same thing that the ‘separatists’ or ‘terrorists’ are shelling their own people to make the Ukrainian Army look bad). When I first read it on ZH.com I thought, “Good Lord, the Kremlin must think Washington is going to be in the crap big time by October or November to push for such a bold move”.
          While Kiev’s military capabilities to stop the DNR and LNR from holding such a referendum are weak to nil, the problem becomes what to do about infiltration and guerrilla attacks. Crimea’s status as an isthmus that is for all practical purposes an island nips that problem in the bud — the SBU and their hidden supporters efforts to whip up the Crimean Tatars in particularly to terrorist attacks have been huge failures, probably owing to the fact that whatever ‘assets’ SBU had on the peninsula as a ‘stay behind’ or Gladio force were rolled up quickly by FSB assets in the SBU and the Polite People in March 2014. SBU efforts to infiltrate their people into the peninsula as tourists or whatnot have been big fails. None of that applies to Donetsk and Lugansk regions which are bordered only by open steppe rather than easily defended nautical approaches so I seriously don’t expect Moscow to roll in the peacekeepers, at least not without major CSTO/SCO backup meaning Belarussian, Kazahk army troops and perhaps even soldiers from the ‘Stans or observers from China.

          In short I don’t think the Kremlin has solved the problem of how to prevent the CIA from turning ‘occupied Ukraine’s frontiers into a second Afghanistan, at least on a smaller scale. At least not until the Kiev regime collapses and many of the fiercest Ukrainian nationalists are sent home or sent packing to Canada with their Western sponsors. I think there would have to be more bloody battles that leave the Ukrainian army in tatters or destroy much of the nationalist forces like Azov first before the Russians would move in as official peacekeepers. But an accelerating dollar collapse and inability of the State Dept/CIA to keep the regime funded would change everything. Money moves mountains much faster than artillery blasts.

    2. Yes, that makes sense. It also makes jade helm uglier, because without a purpose beyond our borders, it makes it more of a domestically targeted exercise, which I really, probably, didn’t want to focus on.

      1. This such an odd play by Washington/NATO then. They’re nearly out of time and money, and they’re throwing valuable resources into something they can’t afford to hold on to, if they should even get lucky and get control as they want to. It seems totally irrational. Probably somebody gets big kickbacks or bonuses as long as the misery drags on, I can’t imagine any other reason for this.

      2. FWIW, I don’t think they tell the specops guys it’s for domestic operations or insurrection, only a few much further up the chain of command. But JSOC guys are very smart, especially the enlisted, and can figure out what they’re really training for rather than the stated mission.

    1. Yes, it’s a term that Col. Cassad (Boris Rozhin) uses, along with the ‘voentorg’ (army surplus store or Army/Navy store) ‘coming with operators’ last August.
      I don’t deny that between 200 and 350 Russian army regulars have died in this war, I just don’t buy the Kiev propaganda that they’ve killed bazillions of them and every other NAF fighter is a Kadyrov pro-Moscow Chechen or Buryat (Mongolian ethnic group in Siberia) invader. Or that they’re capturing Russian army regulars every week while those guys who speak Italian or who can’t speak a word of Russian in their ranks who say ‘out of my face please’ in Buffalo/Rochester upstate NY accents aren’t NATO mercs. They’re operating in eastern Ukraine too and the mercs were there from the start of the conflict particularly when the new junta didn’t know who in the army or Interior Ministry it could trust and badly needed muscle/recon forces.

      Both sides of this war lie. It’s just a matter of which side you prefer or which one you think is lying more. Vice News found at least one uncle of a dead Russian volunteer soldier who knew exactly why his nephew went to fight and called him a hero. If you notice I tend to put the word volunteer less in quotation marks than ‘vacationer’. Because these guys could desert, or refuse to go, on the entirely legal grounds that the commander in chief of the Russian Armed Forces Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin has not declared war or officially deployed the armed forces of Russia in Ukraine. Kiev’s ‘ATO’ is illegal and unconstitutional for precisely this reason, in order to institute conscription in Ukraine the law requires a declaration of war or martial law. This is why Ruslan Kotsaba is jailed and facing a 20 year plus prison sentence, because he declared the ‘ATO’ illegal and unconstitutional on those grounds in addition to being an immoral, fratricidal war that Kiev and the oligarchs provoked when they could have negotiated with a few people who’d taken over government buildings in March 2014.

      http://slavyangrad.org/2014/06/23/ruslan-kotsaba-frank-account/

      http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2015/02/10/free-ruslan-kotsaba/

      Hell a few Russian soldiers did tell their offices off and accepted discharge and then talked to the pro-Western media in Russia (yes it exists, they have not all been shipped off to the gulags at Dozhd, Echo Moskvy or Novaya Gazeta) about how they did not want to fight in Ukraine. Of course the fact that there are 1000 Ukrainian males who didn’t want to fight or die for Kiev in Donbass for every one or two of Russian objectors conscientious or otherwise doesn’t make the papers in the West, the Kiev regime kinda discourages MSM coverage of draft dodging and bribes to get out of the draft. The Kyiv Post, just to maintain their faux democratic State Dept. credentials ran a few mild editorials or articles and then forgot about Kotsaba. The in the tank for Kiev and Ukraine’s war MSM do their best to ignore Kotsaba rotting in jail not for ‘draft dodging’ as the lying Guardian described it (he didn’t get a draft number) but draft resistance and encouraging others not to go. Like Cassius Clay/Mohammed Ali.

    2. Studying the sad, often comical history of Ukraine (and for that matter, Mexico, to which I find many comparisons as its Slavic equivalent — so far from God, so close to Russia) constantly reminds me of that verse from the Book of Judges 21:25: In those days there was no king in Israel: every man did that which was right in his own eyes. – KJV

  3. Maybe the U.S. plans to attack on two fronts simultaneously, Syria and Ukraine. According to Sibel Edmonds in a recent interview with James Corbett, she stated that the order for full military preparation had recently been given to Turkish military forces. She stated that the Turkish military operation, with US blessing, had begun in April and would finish by November of this year. Triggering events in July (bombing in Suruc) would be used to expand their operation into Syria possibly in September/October. She said that this military “operation” hinged upon certain agreements with the US relating to Syria ie no fly zone.
    https://www.corbettreport.com/interview-1075-sibel-edmonds-examines-turkey-syria-and-the-kurdish-question/

    1. I like Sibel Edmonds and respect her sources, and she speaks fluent Turkish and or related Azeri. But Russia just put their foot down on that ‘U.S. no fly zone’ bit with the deployment of the MiG-31 Foxhounds to Syria which may or may not come with Russian pilots. At least the Syrian pilots have been well trained and Russia is becoming a second home for many Syrians connected to the Assad regime. The Russians recently hosted a kids camp for the children of Russian officers and fallen Syrian officers in Crimea. If Turkey moves into northern Syria in a big way and not just the usual cross border artillery fire and raids, they will be walking into a buzzsaw.

  4. I was listening to a Clif High ALTA report. He doesn’t foresee any direct conflict between Russia and the US or China and the US, only proxy wars. Od course he’s doing a completely different kind of analysis than we do here, but his stuff is often pretty accurate. I used to not buy it, but he’s had enough predictions pan out in the last year that I think, like Rosecliff’s Looking Glass, his webbot program is onto something,

    1. Thanks for this link Joyann!
      I had heard about how a pro-Russian Israeli guy was forming a ‘Jewish battalion’ to fight for Novorossiya, but it seemed to be a vapor project. Apparently there are at least a handful of Israelis fighting on both sides — there was an IDF veteran on the Maidan who said he fought with the Right Sector and swore they weren’t Nazis and called him ‘brother’.

      One wonders if the Novorissiya Armed Forces (NAF) might use these Israeli volunteers to make Hebrew language broadcasts towards the Ukrainian front lines — ‘just in case’ there are Israeli mercs on the Kiev side and they’ll tell them to stop betraying their heritage, and cease fighting for Ukrainians who worship mass murderers of Jews and Poles during WWII.

      I suspect the Polish volunteers for the NAF have issued similar ‘don’t fight for Banderites and betray Volyn victims’ messages to the Polish mercs in the Ukrainian ranks too. There have already been acts of resistance and defiance towards the Ukrainian government and its NATO sponsors in Poland itself. Over at Ft. Russ someone published a photo of a Roshen (Poroshenko the choco-oligarch’s candy company) bag of products on a store shelf defaced with ‘don’t buy from Banderites’ in Polish message scrawled with a marker.

      1. To all — I was planning a post this weekend but several days of being down and out with a flu-like illness I have still not figured out has left the Russia Analyst home from work and away from the computer. I suppose it’s just as well on a week like this one, as spiritual discernment seems much more important than mere news sense to recognize whatever it is we’re on the verge of. Everyone in this RM community feels it.
        If the ‘hooray patriots’ as they’re derided at Ft. Russ who attack VVP from the ‘Right’ ask ‘what have Putin and the Kremlin elites been waiting for to make their move or at least strike back at the Kiev regime and its masters in Washington?’ the answer appears to be coming this fall and winter. Putin and Xi have been waiting for the big turmoil in the Western financial markets to draw at least some of the Western media’s focus and globalists’ fire away from them and back on to more pressing matters closer to Wall Street and the City of London.

        If the crash continues this coming week, watch for Poroshenko to launch his offensive in Donbass and for it to get slapped down hard — and this time the NAF won’t stop at approximately the same ceasefire lines. They’ll push further and faster. The signs and warnings I’m seeing from the Russian side is that there may be future ceasefires but there will be no Minsk3. That also goes for the U.S. and NATOForeignLegion aires who were permitted to slip out of the Debaltsevo pocket as a hidden part of the Merkel-Hollande-Putin talks, according to Jim Willie. If Mariupol gets encircled, Kiev won’t be able to hide all of the foreigners who ‘weren’t’ there embedded with the Nazi Azov Battalion as ‘refugees’ and some of them could wind up in NAF captivity on Russian TV. We are past the point where there are those in Moscow ready to further expose the extent of NATO’s (disavowed) involvement very close to or on the front lines and to push some of the economic pain right back on those who thought they could break Russia.

        My advice to all RMers is to use this weekend for rest, reflection and prayer.

          1. Announcement to All RogueMoney readers —
            I just saw the posting at 12:30 a.m. Central/1:30 a.m. Eastern Sunday that our friend ArcLight Institute founder and Looking Glass software creator Michael Rosecliff had passed away this weekend. The announcement by Mike’s friends or close ones is here: https://thearclightinstitute.wordpress.com/

            To those who are new to the RM community or unfamiliar with Rosecliff’s work, you can listen to his final appearance on the Guerrilla Radio show from 4 months ago here, where he describes the Looking Glass software:

            https://soundcloud.com/v-guerrilla/the-goerilla-economist-9

            Please follow V’s feed for updates, any details on where to send condolences or funeral arrangements.

            https://twitter.com/ArcLightInst/status/635322924447191040

            https://twitter.com/theroguemoney/status/635328224487186432

            JWS

    1. Joyann,
      Henry K and Kissinger and Associates have been cultivated by the Kremlin for some time, at least since 2005-2007 when Henry K was invited to the Valdai conferences for direct facetime with VVP. I think Henry K although an arch globalist Rockefeller agent to the end respects Putin and is warning fellow globalists that they misunderestimated him and the importance of the Ukraine to Russia. Or rather one might say the neocon subset of the globalists did not understand both how quickly Putin would react to the Maidan coup in Crimea AND his patience in Donbass, allowing the Kiev regime to rot and waste its military potential against Putin’s proxies before the Russians would intervene directly or deploy peacekeepers. That is what has the neocons and neolibs so frustrated with Putin, is that they’re now the proud owners of this dumpster fire in Kiev and no amount of shaking sugar on the smoking turds of corruption, economic collapse and neo-Nazi/Banderite fanaticism will make them smell like Nuland’s cookies.

  5. You do get the idea that Kissinger is playing both ends against the middle, especially in light of him being the architect of the petrodollar. I guess I just have to accept that fact that we cannot really know what’s going on on the higher levels of this pyramid structure and who is playing at what level. Are these neocons ignorant of the big picture which W alluded to in his interview? Maybe their information is on a need to know only basis like in intelligence circles?
    Hope you’re feeling better and yes, we all need to be praying for wisdom at this juncture. The events seem to be accelerating and there could be some wild cards that we are not anticipating.

    I was looking at the 2 gun attacks, one in NYC at the Federal Building and one between Amsterdam and Paris intercepted by US soldiers. It seemed odd that for the umpteenth time some country says that the guy was on their radar. One wants to ask the question, “So what good is your radar if you keep tracking people and do nothing?” Then the 2 explosions in China chemical factories, one which W spoke of.

    In parts of Damascus people are sipping on smoothies, while other parts are being devastated.

    Germany is going to allow 800,000 refugees into alleviate the crisis in Europe, while refugees are storming Macedeonia.

    Markets are collapsing and currencies decoupling from the $. It does look a bit out of control, even out of control of the powers that be, but I suppose they are good at creating the chaos.

    It’s really a relief to know that none of this comes as a surprise to our Father in heaven and that he is right on schedule. This is the great comfort we have right now because to be honest, nothing else looks comforting at all. I think especially for us who grew up in the West and never experience war on our soil, there is an incredible sense of being insulated from horrible death and violence on a mass scale. Not sure that this generation will pass without seeing that change. I hate to say this but it looks increasingly ominous.

    One of the hard things about having worked in the financial markets for many years is that I have this habit of synthesizing a bunch of information and then feeling things in my gut ( not sure if guys process the same way) and all I can say is I don’t like the way it feels. I wish I could get rid of the queazy feeling but it doesn’t go away so I just pray, also for wisdom and for protection for friends and loved ones.

    So glad we know know the end of the story.

    1. Joyann,
      I was going to write a short piece with some thoughts on Henry K, including his remarks hinting at blowback from the neocons’ and neolibs’ attempt to, in interviewer Jacob Heilbrunn’s words, “break the back” of the Russian government. Whether Henry K was referring to the dollar dumping or even Russian military retaliation inflicting another humiliating defeat on Washington’s proxies in Ukraine or further exposing direct neocon/Langley involvement in Kiev’s atrocities and targeting of civilians to the world I don’t know. Ditto for all the ISIS dirty laundry and Benghazi/Muslim Brotherhood stuff that the Russians and Chinese may’ve scooped off Hillary’s wide open email servers before she had a contractor wipe them.

      http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-interview-henry-kissinger-13615?page=3

      It’s clear from the interview as published in (the Nixon Center think tank affiliated) The National Interest that Kissinger is focused on China as the biggest dragon on the block and views the conflict with the angry Russian bear as a sideshow or a distraction, and the U.S. driving the Russians into the Chinese arms as a big strategic setback if not a disaster for decades of U.S. policy starting from the Sino-Soviet split and even going further back designed to keep Moscow and Beijing apart (in fact George Frost Kennan aka ‘Mr X’ the author of the Long Telegram outlining containment advocated such a policy as soon as Mao took power in 1949 — it’s all there in the book George Kennan: An American Life by Yale historian John Lewis Gaddis). But for now with this terrible news about Rosecliff I think I’ll step back, watch and wait.

      By early October I may have a lot more impressions and things to say, particularly looking at the markets tanking through Russians’ eyes. Watching the Russian news in the hours after MH17 went down while coming down with a high fever last July in Moscow was just surreal — it reminded me of this song Comfortably Numb: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7MsnxnJRUw

      Everything seems to be in a holding pattern waiting for the shocker events whether it’s the Shemitah market crash or the resumption of major fighting in Donbass followed by what I expect will be a crushing Ukrainian defeat and/or possibly the exposure on Russian TV of American and European mercs fighting alongside Kiev’s troops. As I hinted before my time to keep posting at RM particularly the lengthy analyses for which I’ve become known here is running very short prior to this September’s big trip (V knows where in west-central Europe I’m going prior to seeing the in-laws in Moscow). I think I’ll keep commenting here though especially trying to advise people not to be taken in by disinfo as there is so much FUD being deliberately sewn by the .gov psyops warriors and alternative media plants right now.

  6. James,Always sad when someone takes their own life for sure, and sadder that he had no family. There were hints of his instability a few months back when he showed up on Hagmann’s quite drunk. Something seemed amiss at that time.

    As of this week it looks like things are heating up in Asia with the N and S Korea going head to head, explosions in China and Japan military base. None of these events along with the existing conflicts in Ukraine and ME are very comforting. Kissinger’s comments are interesting but he is still a globalist, so from that standpoint probably has a slightly different view of how the NWO must be rolled out. I have not read his book, so he probably clarifies his position further there.

    Look forward to hearing more on the subject when you have have time.

    You might find this site interesting if you are not already familiar with it:

    https://www.ncafp.org/about-us/about/

    1. Joyann —
      I believe that what Kissinger wants is what his lifelong Rockefeller family sponsors have always wanted — out of the Cold War dialectic, convergence, rather than (what could be) a final conflict. Just like Brzezinski Kissinger looks down on the more stupid neocons who believe a Moscow Maidan and another Yeltsin are still possible if they can only destroy the Russian economy enough…they both understand the hardcore Russian Deep Staters will remain and cannot be dislodged by any device the West can devise, they can only be bribed or co-opted into the globalist ‘club’ and made to feel like they ‘belong’ ala Russia’s trajectory in the early to mid-2000s.

  7. Yes, that makes sense. Not sure that Kissinger’s ideas will win out at this rate, but I do think a big war is anticipated to usher in a false man of peace, commonly referred to as the anti-messiah.
    The Phoenix mural at the Security Council room in UN headquarters hints at this, but also all the occultists, the theosophists talked about the 3rd world war which would be between the religions would usher in their Age of Aquarius. These occultists just don’t think like normal people.

  8. James,You may enjoy this book:

    http://www.mgrfoundation.info/FalseDawn_np.pdf

    The writer identities as Catholic/Eastern Orthodox and has done extensive research on the New Age movement. This very much ties into Technocracy and global governance.

    When the towers were hit, I did some research and discovered that Lucis Trust ( formerly Lucifer Trust) a publishing NGO of the UN which was started by Alice Bailey, happened to be headquartered in one of Larry Silverstein’s( owner of Twin Towers) buildings down in the Wall Street area. It was just “interesting” . I agree that 9-11 was an earth shattering even, not because US was attacked by terrorists, but because it provided the rational for the endless wars that we have seen for the last 14 years now. It provided the basis for a war of religions. Christian against Muslim, Sunni against Shiite, Muslim against Jew, not that these events were not rooted in history, but rather because that single event allowed the powers that be to use deep-rooted historical divisions and animosities to create and endless wars.

    These were not accidental and this book along with many others on the New Age Movement is helpful.

    There are others out there that write about this, but I found this online for free.

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